Dark Matter and Energy in the Universe

A couple of years ago I wrote the following in an email that I intended to send to Sean Carroll PhD, Lawrence Kraus PhD, Jeff Hester PhD, and Lisa Randall PhD (all are Physicists and I have all of their email addresses).  I was going to send it because too often I have heard that people may have good ideas but never present them to people that actually know anything about the topic.  However, I kept it in my Draft email folder for a very long time and finally decided that each of these people would probably find it more of an annoyance than anything.  So like everyone else who never says anything my intent came to a grinding halt.

 Finally the other day I decided I would at least put it here in the unlikely event that anyone who might be interested would notice it.  So without further ado here it is...

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All,

The following is a speculation based on years of consideration, but with absolutely no proof.  You don’t have to respond to this, nor even acknowledge receipt. I just offer it as something that could lead to an interesting conclusion.

I have been very intimidated about sending this, but I figure what are the chances I will ever encounter any of you.  Well, I guess it could happen with Lawrence since I live in Phoenix and have even interacted briefly with Jeff Hester (ASU) as he was preparing for his debate with William Lane Craig that is scheduled for this April.  But what the heck.

Everyone seems to presuppose that in the absence of matter or energy that space-time would ideally be flat  (i.e., no reason for any curvature or distortion).  However, what if this presupposition  is wrong?  Of course describing 4 dimensional space time as being flat is probably an odd way to put it, but I think it is the best way of describing undistorted space-time. 

So now let’s consider the possibility of space-time being distorted or curved by something that is external to the known universe.  This is crazy, right?  But is it?

Matter that has collapsed into a black hole has for all practical purposes left the known universe.  With the exception of small amounts of Hawking radiation nothing entering a black hole can ever again interact with the known universe except for one very big effect that everyone just takes for granted.  Gravity.  Gravity does not “escape” the event horizon; it is the distortion of space time by something which has “left the building.”

At the event horizon of the black hole time stops, as viewed from our universe.  Matter entering the event horizon is gone forever, but the gravity associated with that matter persists as a continuing distortion of space-time.  Why?  Then over very large amounts of time I suspect that the gravity well may become more and more shallow (perceived as lower amount of contained equivalent mass) and slowly fade away almost as if the matter is getting farther away from a universe where it is no longer present.  This would be noted as a black hole appearing to shrink faster than can be explained by Hawking radiation.   

If we consider the possibility that our universe exists on a brane and that there can be other branes, is there a mechanism by which branes interact without being in a full blown collision?  Could there be an effect like gravity which can allow one brane to distort the shape of space-time in another brane?

If branes can in a sense feel the presence of nearby branes (via gravity?), then presupposing space-time being flat is probably a bad idea.

What if our brane is interacting with another large brane in a positive curvature sense?  Then we would perceive that our universe instead of being flat would have a positive curvature that gives us the impression that there is dark energy pushing everything away at an increasing velocity.  However, the positive curvature simply has all the matter in the universe rolling off the positive curvature hill of space-time. 

What if we are also interacting with other smaller branes which cause localized negative curvature “pot holes” in space time.  In those areas matter will roll into the pot holes just like water into regular potholes.  It wouldn’t be that there is matter in this universe that caused the original pothole, but as matter moves into the pothole it would indeed get deeper.  However, the matter in this universe will never explain the total depth of the pothole (gravity well).  The dark matter itself will never be found because it doesn’t really exist in this universe.  The distortion of space-time is being externally caused (perhaps by matter in an adjacent brane).

Galaxies will rotate as if there is dark matter because the total distortion of space time is not being caused by the matter contained within the galaxy.  The galaxies will be flying away from each other because they are all sliding down the big space-time hill in differing directions. 

If any of this is true it will be impossible to ever identify a source for dark matter or dark energy that resides within the known universe. All we are really detecting is a universe that is a big hill full of potholes and wrinkles caused by its interaction with other branes. 

Anyone want to take a crack at this idea?  You are welcome to it, or you can amuse your friends with a wacky idea from a crazy person.  I won’t send anything further unless requested to do so. 

All the best to each of you in your current endeavors.      

Curtis Eickerman

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Confirmation Bias - How it gets reinforced and how to reduce it

This post is somewhat related to the previous one.  It has to do with how we all experience confirmation bias, what is wrong with that and how to reduce this bias in our thinking.

Confirmation bias is what happens when we tend to look for evidence or "confirmation" that something we think or believe is actually the truth.  It can happen both consciously and subsonsciously.  We can actually look for sources of information that agree with us by, for example, typing a question into an internet search engine.  Say we type in "the earth is flat" into a search engine and sure enough we will see information pertaining to the idea that the earth really is flat (spoilers - it's not).  However, we could get the impression and confirmation that we are right in thinking the earth is flat simply because we have looked for articles that "confirm" what we have already thought.

We tend not to look up "what's wrong with the idea the earth is flat" which will present to you the articles that can show you what is wrong with what you have been thinking.  We seldom want to know that we are wrong.  It is our nature to want to feel that we are right in what we think or believe and will automatically look for this confirmation.

There is also a way we subconsciously reinforce confirmation biases.  We do it simply by associating with people of "like minds."  This can be based on any subject and some of it can be unintentional simply because we "like" people who agree with us and tend to distance ourselves from people with whom we might have disagreements.  This can be based upon religious beliefs, gun control, politics, or even such mundane things a music preferences (rock, country western, hip hop, new age, etc).

So is confirmation bias a bad thing?  In short, yes.  Why?  Because confirmation bias causes us to develop a blind spot with regard to our thinking and beliefs with regard to the truth.  It does this in two ways.  By only looking at or gravitating to the confirmation situations we tend to only see and hear the things that agree with what we are already thinking and remain relatively unexposed to alternatives.  This makes it very difficult to see in what ways our ideas may fall short of being the truth. This can insulate us from seeing actual evidence that our beliefs are not in accordance with reality.  Worse yet it gives those who "confirm" our idea the ability to easily misrepresent the other side of the issue.  It makes us gullible.

Let's take a look at a political example.  If you are a Republican and only listen to or watch Republican sources of news you are getting a biased source (the same goes for Democrats).  In addition you will constantly be exposed to those Republicans who tell you what Democrats are thinking or what Democrats want.  Again the converse is also true.  The end result is you can be easily manipulated into thinking you know what "the other side" thinks and wants which may be completely wrong.  You can even be driven by fear into making voting decisions for really bad reasons.  You also will think that only Republicans (Democrats) actually see the whole truth because you never actually hear the whole story.  You only hear a misrepresentation of the other side of the story.

So, what can you do about this?  Well, it's not easy and it's not comfortable.  You have to look at sources of information that you automatically find irritating, infuriating in some cases, and at least argumentative.  Are these actually telling you the truth?  Actually they are just telling you the story from another biased point of view and that is why this is difficult.  However, in the process you become sensitive to the biases you see from the other side.  For example, if you are a Democrat and you see a Republican source saying Democrats want "X" yet you know you really don't want "X" you now know what a biased statement this is.  Indeed "Democrats" (inferring ALL Democrats) want "X" is a biased presentation and you recognize this because you know Democrats who don't want "X" at all.  So now when you as a Democrat see a statement that Republicans want "Y" you know that this is a suspect statement.  Sure some Republicans may want "Y" but probably not all of them and you don't even really know if any of them want "Y".

When we see statements only from sources that agree with us we don't recognize the potential for manipulation and misrepresentation.

The same thing happens when we look at political advertisements.  You see an advertisement from the political group you tend to align with which says Joe Smith voted against helping Veterans with mental health care system improvements.  So clearly Joe Smith is a bad person.  What you never see is why Joe Smith voted against a certain proposition.  You never hear why Joe Smith voted against the proposal, when in fact it turns out he found it necessary to vote against it because of an amendment that was added that had nothing to do with Veteran's health care and did something very harmful or even unconstitutional.  Joe Smith, it turns out, is a veteran himself and is highly in favor of providing them with better care, but the proposal in question contained a problem that was completely unacceptable.  You don't get to vote against only parts of a bill, so he was forced to vote against the whole thing.

Another way to reduce confirmation bias is to do the same sort of thing in a more personal environment.  You literally put yourself in what you might consider the "enemy camp."  You interact directly with those you believe you have a disagreement with.  You listen to them and talk to them.  You look for areas where you agree or where they may point out issues with your beliefs.  You prepare yourself to be able to admit weaknesses in your position and find ways to respectfully point out where you have issues with the other side of the issue.  You avoid the "Republicans are idiots" or "Democrats are crazy" (us versus them thinking) and deal with the actual substance of issues without all the ad hominem attacks.

Too often right now, we are dealing with each other like this is WWI and we just sit in our respective trenches and lob artillery shells at each other and accomplish nothing.  It's not until we have a dialog that is not replete with idiot, moron, redneck, Nazi, bible thumper and other such comments will we make real progress.         

Us versus Them

I have started thinking about this lately because of the the recent problems that to some degree may be an outgrowth of the social isolation and stress many of us have been living under in the last few months.

More and more these days we find ourselves being subjected to and also being part of an "us versus them" mentality.  Of course in such situations we always think of ourselves as being completely justified in our beliefs and opinions.

In the following I am going to attempt to illustrate this with events from my own life without specifying my own particular beliefs.

Long ago I was associated with a certain religious group.  I subsequently left it after a rather prolonged affiliation.  More recently I have taken part in a social group where I have encountered the following statement multiple times.  A person in the group will say that they never were associated with such a group or that they immediately recognized a problem with such a group and they would "never have been idiotic enough" to participate in such a thing.

I generally just hold my tongue and say nothing, but realize rather quickly that I have just been called an idiot by someone with an "us versus them" mentality.  Of course they don't know what they have done, but I do.  I also know that I was not and am not an idiot.  Of course neither were the doctors, lawyers, engineers and even therapists who  were also participants in "such a thing."

On rare occasions I have responded to the, "I wasn't stupid enough to be part of..." statements with the following.  "Yeah, I once said publicly I wouldn't be stupid enough to be part of (fill in the blank), then I spent 13 years in there."  This tends to have the best effect after I have already convinced them that I am well informed on the subject (I think it kind of rattles their assessment of the situation).

This sort of "us versus them" mentality seems to surface more when the person believes themselves to be in the middle of a group that all completely agrees with them.

In the social group I previously mentioned there is a predominant, but not 100%, bent toward a certain political ideology.  One night a gentleman boisterously raised the question about what we thought of a certain political figure and how that person was just so great.  I guess my tolerance for the "us versus them" mentality had reached a low point and the gentleman was sitting too close to me.  So I responded as how I actually thought that person should be sitting in prison, then proceeded to state that facts that had been established which absolutely confirmed why.  Oh, and if you think you know who I am talking about you only have a 50% chance of being right because I was equally armed with a response pertaining to the the political opponent.

The point here is that even if I am affiliated with a group I am not "owned" by them nor are my thoughts or opinions.  I almost subscribe to the old Groucho Marx line that, "I wouldn't belong to any club that would have me as a member."

I do my best not to subscribe to the "us versus them" mentality because I am not "us" I am me.  I am not always right or all knowing, but also the people I disagree with are not idiots, morons, or deplorable. All people have reasons for believing or doing the things that they believe or do.  The reasons may be rational or irrational.  The reasons may also be good or poor, but the reasons are seldom better just because of their association with a particular group.    

Awfulizing and Covid-19

Awfulizing is the process of blowing things out of proportion into something more than they actually are.  With regard to Covid-19 things are are significantly bad and this can lead to awfulizing quite readily.

A couple of weeks ago my wife and I were driving over to her sister's house to deliver a product that they in turn were going to deliver to their mom.  In the process we stopped at an intersection where someone was asking for money.  This guy looked in pretty rough shape as if he had been on the street for quite some time.  My wife was in the driver seat and I asked her about us giving this guy some money.  Traffic was pretty sparse because many people were already staying at home for the most part.  We agreed to give him $5 and motioned him over to the car.

The guy was quite thankful to get anything and was even wearing blue nitrile gloves (actually quite a good idea under the circumstances).  After we gave him the money he asked us if we thought this was the end of the world.  He said his mother thought so, and he was thinking it might be true.  We told him we actually thought things were going to be pretty rough for a couple of months, but that we didn't think it was the end of mankind.  He thanked us again and moved back to his spot on the corner as we drove on.

Just a few days ago I said to my wife something about the whole world falling apart.  It's not, but that's the way I was feeling about it just like the man we had encountered on the road.

Many, if not all of us, tend to focus on the bad and blow it up to be even bigger, worse, and more catastrophic than it really is (awfulize).  World Ends! Film at 11. 

The deaths in this pandemic are definitely a tragedy, but is what is happening catastrophic.  By comparison there were 50 to 60 million deaths due to the Spanish Flu a hundred years ago.  Yet, just a couple of years ago how many people even knew that it had happened.  The answer is few.  It killed more people than WWI  (flu 50-60 million versus WWI 40 million) but it was essentially never mentioned outside of medical papers.

Every year the regular flu kills 300,000 to 700,000 world wide.  Right now Covid-19 is responsible for around 45,000 deaths.  Unfortunately it has the potential for being quite bad and needs to be taken quite seriously.  We are doing many of the right things to try to keep these numbers down, but will we be successful?  We will see.  However in the mean time there will be tragic situations and people lost who are dear to us.   

Working at Staying Isolated During Covid-19

Yes we are working at staying away from people during this Covid-19 spread.  We have a reasonable stock of food, and other expendables.  So we are staying away from stores as much as possible.  This came about largely because our youngest child is living with us at the moment after getting himself a Masters degree at college.  Now he is preparing for spending a year or more overseas on a Fullbright Scholarship while teaching english.  Yes, the logistics of that are a little sketchy at the moment for obvious reasons, but we are all still hopeful about him being able to do this. 

No, none of us have any symptoms.  Unfortunately before my son was relegated to working from home he attended a meeting at work.  One of the attendees several days later came down with some kind of flu.  He still has not received test results but is pretty sure he has Covid-19.  The fact that he has received no test results is abominable over a week later, but what can you do.  So, there is a chance our son was exposed which means there is a chance we have been exposed.  Not wanting to expose anyone else, we have decided to do the best we can at self quarantine.

Fortunately we are all pretty good at getting along with each other, but living together under these conditions does put a strain on relationships.  I never thought I would be looking forward to the heat in Phoenix, but I am.  I am hopeful that the heat will also bring a downturn in the infection rate around here.

Irrational and Immoral Behavior in Light of Covid-19

Yesterday I needed to make a quick trip across town both to deliver something and pick up something from my older son.  We stood apart from each other as we did what we needed to do.  No hugs.  No handshake.  He's trying to keep both his family and us safe and I was trying to do likewise.  On the return I saw something that both shocked me and didn't surprise me at the same time. 

On a Sunday afternoon on our way across town it would not be unusual to see a bunch of cars in a church parking lot, but right now this year it was shocking.  Why?  It was shocking because it was such a flagrant display of irrational immorality that I was stunned.  

I realize these people probably think God will protect them.  Well so did the people in a church in Italy that became a hotbed source of Covid-19.  These people in their flagrant disregard of reality were not just putting their own lives at risk, they were risking the lives of everyone they would have contact with in the next week or two.  They were risking the lives of every grocery store employee, every customer who is just trying to get food, every healthcare worker who may have to treat them and every innocent passerby on the street.

Why do I say their behavior was irrational and immoral?  It was irrational because we know what is going on and that there is a real danger associated with gathering in groups right now.  They are being irrational in denying the reality of that.  It was immoral because they are knowingly putting peoples lives at risk other than their own.  Last I checked immoral behavior was considered sin.  You would think someone who believes in that would see the hypocrisy of their actions.     

Unsung Heros of Covid-19

I think we all appreciate the healthcare workers and the paramedics during this time because they are on the front lines dealing with an infectious disease, but that is not what this post is about.

This post is about the unsung heroes.  I am talking about the people who staff the grocery stores, the hardware stores, food delivery people and truck drivers who are still at their jobs and making sure essential needs are able to be met.  Right now these also are first responders and absolutely essential to our well being during these times.

I salute you and want you to know you have our thanks and undying gratitude in these trying times.

What I hate about Covid-19

It's been a long time since I was around here.  I am even wondering why I came back.  I am a little upset with the current state of affairs.  Who isn't?  However I am probably more upset over different things.

Yes, the Covid-19 virus, the Corona Virus or whatever you want to call it definitely sucks, but I think what sucks way more is people's behavior.  We are in this situation largely because of really bad behavior of people involved in the government of China.  I am talking about people who were intimidated into not revealing the problem before it got out of hand.  Then those who did reveal it demonstrated the governmental manipulation problem.  Some of them paid for that with their lives.  Oh, they were chalked up to Corona Virus victims, but of course they would be.  I also guarantee that North Korea is doing exactly the same thing.

Having said all of this I am still not addressing the thing that I think sucks even worse.  In many ways humanity is acting like an "immune system" that has run amok.  We are doing way more damage to the body than that virus that triggered this whole event.  When all is said and done I predict the death toll due to collateral damage rather than the virus itself will be much higher than the toll directly due to the virus.  We are also demonstrating that panic can lead to people doing incredibly stupid things.  That is because panicked people don't think.  They just react and usually react in ways that are ultimately counter productive.

That leads me to something that is just infuriating me and that is the roll that news media has had in generating panic.  Cue dramatic music - announcer in dramatic baritone voice, "Corona Virus catastrophe brings an end to the world.  News at 11," followed by flashy video graphics.  Yes, this is hyperbole, but not by much.  The news media is not just presenting facts as they should, they are presenting a lot of unsupported opinion as if it is fact and providing dramatic emphasis to sell it to all of us.  Why?  Ratings and market share.  Catastrophe sells.  It sucks in viewers.  It gets people to watch the advertising.  It keeps you glued to your screen.

Then of course you have the "talking heads" many of whom actually know little if anything but realize if they can say something outrageous they are brought back time and again.  They enjoy the fame and their place of self appointed importance.  They don't add anything constructive to the situation but only serve to raise the level of panic that helps to drive the herd wherever you want them to go.

You may realize that I hate being manipulated.  I hate attempts to panic me that interfere with critical thinking.  I hate being steered in ways that are not in my best interest or the best interest of those I care about.  I hate seeing people being turned into drones that sprout "party lines" and unsupported accusations.  I hate seeing people being divided when they should instead be unified and supporting one another.  However, divide and conquer seems to be the theme of these times.  It's sad and makes me angry.